Student Demographics and Graduation Rates Within Six Years

Objective and Scope

Examine the correlation between various student demographics and graduation to help identify characteristics of students that, on average, have higher or lower likelihood of finishing their bachelors degree within six years (150% of normal time).

Analysis included fall semester first-time post-secondary full-time bachelors degree-seeking students over the most recent five years of cohorts that have had six years to graduate and whether they returned to ISU the subsequent fall or not. The focus of the study revolved around student demographics including Age, Sex, Race/Ethnicity, First Generation and Pell Eligibility (proxy for income).

As many factors may contribute to graduation rates that may also be correlated with these demographics it is essential to control for the externalities that would otherwise misrepresent the ISU equity (fairness) story. As such, a multivariate logistic regression was performed to better isolate if, after controlling for a closer to complete picture of the student, differences in demographics still exists. Control variables included various characteristics about the student prior to their arrival at ISU (e.g. high school activity), financial variables (e.g. aid received), and initial ISU activity (e.g. chosen course taking behavior). See the “Variables Considered” section for more information.

Key Findings

High School GPA was a better predictor of six year graduation rates than any student demographic considered in this study. Overall differences in graduation rates between these different demographics appear to be more of a result of differing starting points, on average. For example, overall, males have lower grad rates than females. However, males start at ISU with, on average, a lower high school GPA. After controlling for high school GPA and other factors, the effect of sex was statistically insignificant. Statistically significant differences between certain demographics did exist, but with relatively small effect sizes, varied confidence intervals and sensitivity to changes in statistical modeling. A highlight of these findings can be found below:

Sex: Statistically insignificant.

Race/ethnicity: Students who are Hispanic were slightly more likely to be graduate (at 90% confidence and not significant when excluding ACT/SAT score variable in the modeling).

Age: Older students were more likely to graduate after controlling for other factors. Significant but effect size was relatively small. In addition, low sample size on older entering students is a limitation to this finding.

First generation: Statistically insignificant.

Pell eligibility: Students who were pell eligible were slightly less likely to graduate in six years

Variables Considered

The interactive tables below displays the various variables considered, how each was defined and how graduation rates varies within the variable.

Demographics

Sex

Definition: Self-reported sex from the student application

Race/Ethnicity

Definition: Self-reported race/ethnicity from the student application

Age

Definition: Age at time of entry at ISU

First Gen

Definition: Self-reported response from the FAFSA in their entry year. If no FAFSA submitted it would be unknown, which is a limitation.

Pell Eligibility

Definition: Whether the student received pell grant their first year or not.

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

Financial Indicators

For each variable considered, you can review that feature, how it related to graduation rates and also the demographics of interest for this study.

Grant Aid Received

Definition: The amount of grant or scholarship aid received by the student in their first semester at ISU.

Graduation

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

Loans Received

Definition: The amount of loans taken by the student in their first semester at ISU.

Graduation

Sex

Number of Credits

Definitions: The number of credits taken by the student. The study focused just on full-time students, but within that, students can take a varied amount of credits

Graduation

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

Courses

Definition: The courses enrolled by these students their first semester at ISU. To avoid overfitting, only the 20 or so of the most popular courses were included in the analysis

Results

Modeling

The following is the result of a logistic regression with a dependent variable of graduate or not against the student demographics of interest and the various other possible contributing factors to graduation in six years The first model does not include the ACT or SAT variable, as this was the most often unavailable data point. The second model includes the ACT or SAT variable but excludes the students for which it was unavailable. For more detail on some of the due diligence and diagnostics completed for this classification analysis, see the appendix.


	Dependent variable:

	Graduation in Six Year
	Without ACT/SAT	With ACT/SAT
	(1)	(2)

Female	0.087 (0.074)	0.104 (0.094)
	p = 0.244	p = 0.266
Race/Ethnicity White	0.073 (0.093)	0.104 (0.132)
	p = 0.434	p = 0.430
Race/Ethnicity Hispanic	0.135 (0.128)	0.279^* (0.166)
	p = 0.290	p = 0.092
Age	0.063^*** (0.016)	0.085^*** (0.029)
	p = 0.0001	p = 0.004
First Generation	-0.108 (0.081)	-0.078 (0.096)
	p = 0.179	p = 0.417
Pell Eligible	-0.378^*** (0.079)	-0.344^*** (0.098)
	p = 0.00001	p = 0.0005
High School GPA	1.381^*** (0.084)	1.845^*** (0.132)
	p = 0.000	p = 0.000
ACT or SAT Score		0.024^* (0.013)
		p = 0.067
Athlete	0.428^** (0.217)	0.631^** (0.250)
	p = 0.050	p = 0.012
Lives Oncampus	0.562^*** (0.078)	0.562^*** (0.095)
	p = 0.000	p = 0.000
Fully Online	-0.452 (0.386)	-0.448 (0.455)
	p = 0.242	p = 0.326
Some Online	-0.016 (0.085)	-0.036 (0.109)
	p = 0.847	p = 0.741
Some Remedial	-0.380^*** (0.103)	-0.191 (0.154)
	p = 0.0003	p = 0.215
Did Prior ISU Dual Credit	0.194^** (0.080)	0.114 (0.093)
	p = 0.016	p = 0.223
Idaho Address	0.022 (0.107)	0.476^*** (0.170)
	p = 0.837	p = 0.006
Grant Aid	0.0001^*** (0.00001)	0.0001^*** (0.00002)
	p = 0.0002	p = 0.0003
Loan Aid	-0.00004^** (0.00002)	-0.00001 (0.00002)
	p = 0.018	p = 0.720
Writing and Rhetoric I	-0.190^** (0.078)	-0.131 (0.098)
	p = 0.015	p = 0.181
Introduction to Psychology	-0.053 (0.079)	-0.034 (0.094)
	p = 0.502	p = 0.719
First Year Transition	-0.006 (0.089)	-0.016 (0.107)
	p = 0.948	p = 0.882
Introduction to Art	0.130 (0.081)	-0.109 (0.111)
	p = 0.106	p = 0.328
Biology I	0.139^* (0.084)	0.038 (0.098)
	p = 0.100	p = 0.695
Writing and Rhetoric II	-0.009 (0.088)	-0.103 (0.104)
	p = 0.921	p = 0.325
Introduction to Sociology	-0.037 (0.113)	-0.029 (0.138)
	p = 0.745	p = 0.832
Fundamentals of Oral Comm	0.128 (0.083)	0.164 (0.100)
	p = 0.121	p = 0.103
Intermediate Algebra	-0.147^* (0.083)	0.022 (0.105)
	p = 0.077	p = 0.836
General Chemistry I	0.403^*** (0.128)	0.305^** (0.153)
	p = 0.002	p = 0.048
Personal Finance	-0.226 (0.197)	-0.527^** (0.246)
	p = 0.252	p = 0.032
Varsity Ath Bengal Danc Cheer	-0.131 (0.218)	-0.216 (0.255)
	p = 0.549	p = 0.396
Introduction to Philosophy	-0.274^** (0.133)	-0.282^* (0.165)
	p = 0.040	p = 0.088
People and Cult of Old World	0.108 (0.134)	0.129 (0.161)
	p = 0.419	p = 0.423
Elementary Spanish I	-0.192 (0.139)	-0.228 (0.164)
	p = 0.168	p = 0.165
College Algebra	0.155 (0.137)	0.222 (0.159)
	p = 0.260	p = 0.164
Undecided	-0.181^* (0.099)	-0.092 (0.122)
	p = 0.070	p = 0.452
Nursing	-0.247^** (0.123)	-0.259^* (0.146)
	p = 0.045	p = 0.077
Biology	-0.288^** (0.140)	-0.206 (0.168)
	p = 0.040	p = 0.223
Health Science	-0.195 (0.189)	-0.090 (0.218)
	p = 0.304	p = 0.678
Psychology	0.088 (0.173)	0.120 (0.212)
	p = 0.611	p = 0.571
Dental Hygiene	-0.128 (0.182)	-0.118 (0.211)
	p = 0.483	p = 0.579
Computer Science	-0.407^** (0.182)	-0.282 (0.275)
	p = 0.026	p = 0.305
General Business	0.252 (0.358)	0.406 (0.448)
	p = 0.482	p = 0.365
Pharmacy	-0.519^*** (0.168)	-0.643^*** (0.197)
	p = 0.002	p = 0.002
Radiographic Science	-0.394^* (0.236)	-0.303 (0.281)
	p = 0.095	p = 0.282
Elementary Education	-0.232 (0.265)	-0.222 (0.319)
	p = 0.382	p = 0.486
Secondary Education	0.010 (0.407)	-0.130 (0.459)
	p = 0.981	p = 0.778
Mechanical Engineering	-0.006 (0.155)	-0.096 (0.270)
	p = 0.969	p = 0.723
Communication	-0.021 (0.338)	0.265 (0.400)
	p = 0.952	p = 0.508
Physical Education	-0.061 (0.224)	-0.069 (0.267)
	p = 0.785	p = 0.798
Nuclear Engineering	-0.094 (0.251)	-0.117 (0.363)
	p = 0.707	p = 0.748
Physical Therapist Assistant	1.266 (1.647)	12.076 (196.968)
	p = 0.443	p = 0.952
Management	0.037 (0.302)	0.088 (0.378)
	p = 0.902	p = 0.817
Accounting	0.322 (0.240)	0.474 (0.321)
	p = 0.180	p = 0.141
Social Work	0.086 (0.316)	0.447 (0.391)
	p = 0.785	p = 0.253
Fiscal Year 2015	0.045 (0.101)	0.121 (0.134)
	p = 0.658	p = 0.365
Fiscal Year 2016	0.048 (0.104)	0.105 (0.133)
	p = 0.645	p = 0.429
Fiscal Year 2017	-0.186 (0.114)	-0.014 (0.143)
	p = 0.105	p = 0.922
Fiscal Year 2018	-0.027 (0.114)	0.057 (0.135)
	p = 0.815	p = 0.673
Constant	-6.615^*** (0.467)	-9.811^*** (0.780)
	p = 0.000	p = 0.000

Observations	5,671	3,565
Log Likelihood	-3,074.627	-1,950.809
Akaike Inf. Crit.	6,263.255	4,017.617

Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

After controlling for all the variables discussion, the following are the results for the demographics of interest:

Sex: Statistically insignificant.

Race/ethnicity: Students who are Hispanic were slightly more likely to be graduate (at 90% confidence and not significant when excluding ACT/SAT score variable in the modeling).

First generation: Statistically insignificant.

Pell eligibility: Students who were pell eligible were slightly less likely to graduate in six years

Based on the absolute value of the z-score and effect sizes, High School GPA was the strongest predictor of graduation within six years. A few other findings include: Athletes are more likely to graduate. Students who lived on-campus was also positively correlated with graduation The more grant or scholarship aid received, the more likely a student would be graduate.

Analysis

To better illustrate the findings from the modeling process, the resulting predicted probability of graduation in six years was visualized against the variables of interest for the demographics that were statistically significant. This was done by calculating an “average” student in fiscal year 2018 by taking the mean of each variable and then changing the variable of interest to visualize the evolving probability of graduation rates As a logistic regression does not assume a linear relationship, the change in probability due to a particular factor is also not linear. The purpose of this exercise was not for precision, as an “average” student doesn’t really exist. It is simply intended as a means to visualize the “average” effect of a particular variable while holding other variables constant.

In addition, as determined, high school GPA is likely the strongest predictor of graduation. As such, comparisons of graduation between high school GPA and the student demographics are also included as another visualization and perspective of the takeaways from this study.

High School GPA

Students with less than a 2.5 high school GPA appear to be exponentially less likely to graduate within six years. As shown below, the change in probabilty (effect size) for the demographics in this study appear to have less impact relative to high school GPA.

Sex

As sex was statistically insignificant, predicted probability was not visualized.

Cross tabulation of High School GPA with Sex, we see the difference between female and males in graduation diminish. The more stark trend is students who are male start at ISU with a lower High School GPA on average (3.21 vs 3.42 for females).

Race/Ethnicity

The following displays the change in predicted probability of graduation by taking the “average student” (mean value of all variables) and whether they were hispanic or not.

Cross tabulation of High School GPA with Race/Ethnicity, the higher probability of graduation for hispanic students is actually pretty unclear. This is likely why it was only at the 90% confidence interval and insignificant when excluding ACT/SAT variable but including more students.

Age

The following displays the change in predicted probability of graduation by taking the “average student” (mean value of all variables) and their age.

Cross tabulation of High School GPA with Age, we see a few trends. At the higher high school GPA level (e.g 3.5+), we see younger students with higher graduation rates. Within the “at-risk” group of lower GPA students, the older students were slightly more likely to graduate. This is probably why age was significant in the model after controlling for high school gpa.

First Gen

As first generation status was statistically insignificant, predicted probability was not visualized.

Cross tabulation of High School GPA with first generation status, we see the slightly lower graduation rate of first gen students.

Pell Eligibility

The following displays the change in predicted probability of graduation by taking the “average student” (mean value of all variables) and whether they were pell eligible or not.

Cross tabulation of High School GPA with pell eligibility status, we see the slightly lower graduation rate of pell eligible students.

Appendix

Model Due Diligence

K-Fold Cross Validation

As a means of exploring the sensitivity of the results, K-fold cross validation was used to add another perspective. As discussed in the main sections of the report, some of the demographics experienced some sensitivity to being statistically significant or not. The highly correlated factors of graduation in six years (e.g. high school GPA) were resilient to different folds of the data being isolated in the modeling. It is worth noting that with each fold being around 900 records, sample size becomes a small limitation to this method.


	Dependent variable:

	Graduation in Six Years
	Full Model	Fold A	Fold B	Fold C	Fold D
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)

Female	0.104 (0.094)	-0.023 (0.193)	-0.148 (0.197)	0.229 (0.201)	0.260 (0.201)
	p = 0.266	p = 0.907	p = 0.451	p = 0.255	p = 0.197
Race/Ethnicity White	0.104 (0.132)	0.334 (0.269)	-0.146 (0.253)	-0.076 (0.289)	0.244 (0.306)
	p = 0.430	p = 0.214	p = 0.563	p = 0.793	p = 0.425
Race/Ethnicity Hispanic	0.279^* (0.166)	0.785^** (0.340)	-0.036 (0.333)	-0.258 (0.365)	0.685^* (0.367)
	p = 0.092	p = 0.021	p = 0.915	p = 0.480	p = 0.062
Age	0.085^*** (0.029)	0.058 (0.073)	-0.021 (0.082)	0.082 (0.068)	0.155^*** (0.052)
	p = 0.004	p = 0.433	p = 0.796	p = 0.227	p = 0.003
First Generation	-0.078 (0.096)	-0.483^** (0.202)	0.293 (0.199)	-0.114 (0.210)	-0.049 (0.204)
	p = 0.417	p = 0.017	p = 0.141	p = 0.588	p = 0.810
Pell Eligible	-0.344^*** (0.098)	-0.379^* (0.205)	-0.262 (0.205)	-0.556^*** (0.212)	-0.237 (0.205)
	p = 0.0005	p = 0.066	p = 0.202	p = 0.009	p = 0.248
High School GPA	1.845^*** (0.132)	1.507^*** (0.250)	1.866^*** (0.273)	2.368^*** (0.307)	2.199^*** (0.298)
	p = 0.000	p = 0.000	p = 0.000	p = 0.000	p = 0.000
ACT or SAT Score	0.024^* (0.013)	0.002 (0.027)	0.034 (0.029)	0.027 (0.027)	0.029 (0.028)
	p = 0.067	p = 0.930	p = 0.240	p = 0.316	p = 0.302
Athlete	0.631^** (0.250)	0.273 (0.475)	0.416 (0.495)	2.203^*** (0.744)	0.594 (0.493)
	p = 0.012	p = 0.565	p = 0.402	p = 0.004	p = 0.229
Lives Oncampus	0.562^*** (0.095)	0.578^*** (0.196)	0.419^** (0.201)	0.686^*** (0.209)	0.616^*** (0.202)
	p = 0.000	p = 0.004	p = 0.038	p = 0.002	p = 0.003
Fully Online	-0.448 (0.455)	-0.117 (0.936)	-0.876 (0.935)	1.389 (1.227)	-2.075^* (1.236)
	p = 0.326	p = 0.901	p = 0.350	p = 0.258	p = 0.094
Some Online	-0.036 (0.109)	0.115 (0.233)	-0.158 (0.223)	0.279 (0.240)	-0.503^** (0.228)
	p = 0.741	p = 0.624	p = 0.479	p = 0.247	p = 0.028
Some Remedial	-0.191 (0.154)	-0.330 (0.305)	-0.666^* (0.342)	0.007 (0.342)	0.248 (0.312)
	p = 0.215	p = 0.279	p = 0.052	p = 0.984	p = 0.426
Did Prior ISU Dual Credit	0.114 (0.093)	0.171 (0.193)	0.103 (0.189)	0.117 (0.208)	-0.019 (0.200)
	p = 0.223	p = 0.376	p = 0.588	p = 0.574	p = 0.926
Idaho Address	0.476^*** (0.170)	0.453 (0.357)	0.271 (0.345)	0.816^** (0.361)	0.337 (0.376)
	p = 0.006	p = 0.204	p = 0.433	p = 0.024	p = 0.371
Grant Aid	0.0001^*** (0.00002)	0.0001^*** (0.00004)	0.00002 (0.00004)	0.0001^* (0.00004)	0.0001 (0.00004)
	p = 0.0003	p = 0.005	p = 0.591	p = 0.089	p = 0.101
Loan Aid	-0.00001 (0.00002)	-0.00005 (0.00005)	-0.00002 (0.00005)	0.00001 (0.00005)	-0.00001 (0.00005)
	p = 0.720	p = 0.310	p = 0.654	p = 0.908	p = 0.819
Writing and Rhetoric I	-0.131 (0.098)	-0.042 (0.203)	-0.437^** (0.205)	0.021 (0.215)	0.048 (0.206)
	p = 0.181	p = 0.835	p = 0.033	p = 0.924	p = 0.815
Introduction to Psychology	-0.034 (0.094)	-0.084 (0.187)	0.050 (0.203)	0.010 (0.199)	-0.033 (0.201)
	p = 0.719	p = 0.654	p = 0.806	p = 0.961	p = 0.872
First Year Transition	-0.016 (0.107)	0.118 (0.218)	-0.038 (0.217)	-0.244 (0.231)	0.152 (0.232)
	p = 0.882	p = 0.591	p = 0.862	p = 0.290	p = 0.514
Introduction to Art	-0.109 (0.111)	0.050 (0.228)	0.007 (0.238)	-0.127 (0.235)	-0.413^* (0.236)
	p = 0.328	p = 0.826	p = 0.977	p = 0.590	p = 0.081
Biology I	0.038 (0.098)	0.249 (0.201)	-0.058 (0.201)	0.048 (0.210)	-0.034 (0.209)
	p = 0.695	p = 0.216	p = 0.774	p = 0.819	p = 0.870
Writing and Rhetoric II	-0.103 (0.104)	0.400^* (0.222)	-0.380^* (0.212)	-0.155 (0.220)	-0.181 (0.230)
	p = 0.325	p = 0.073	p = 0.074	p = 0.483	p = 0.432
Introduction to Sociology	-0.029 (0.138)	0.044 (0.269)	-0.120 (0.277)	0.388 (0.317)	-0.388 (0.317)
	p = 0.832	p = 0.872	p = 0.664	p = 0.221	p = 0.222
Fundamentals of Oral Comm	0.164 (0.100)	0.441^** (0.210)	-0.313 (0.208)	0.270 (0.227)	0.482^** (0.204)
	p = 0.103	p = 0.036	p = 0.132	p = 0.236	p = 0.019
Intermediate Algebra	0.022 (0.105)	-0.149 (0.213)	-0.085 (0.213)	0.078 (0.233)	0.185 (0.225)
	p = 0.836	p = 0.484	p = 0.689	p = 0.740	p = 0.411
General Chemistry I	0.305^** (0.153)	0.611^* (0.326)	-0.011 (0.320)	0.111 (0.320)	0.558^* (0.323)
	p = 0.048	p = 0.062	p = 0.973	p = 0.730	p = 0.084
Personal Finance	-0.527^** (0.246)	0.238 (0.455)	-0.728 (0.565)	-1.366^** (0.605)	-0.823 (0.531)
	p = 0.032	p = 0.602	p = 0.198	p = 0.024	p = 0.122
Varsity Ath Bengal Danc Cheer	-0.216 (0.255)	-0.473 (0.528)	0.019 (0.501)	-1.145^* (0.692)	-0.150 (0.507)
	p = 0.396	p = 0.371	p = 0.970	p = 0.098	p = 0.769
Introduction to Philosophy	-0.282^* (0.165)	0.027 (0.343)	-0.568^* (0.338)	-0.582^* (0.353)	-0.247 (0.387)
	p = 0.088	p = 0.937	p = 0.093	p = 0.099	p = 0.524
People and Cult of Old World	0.129 (0.161)	0.519^* (0.313)	-0.023 (0.333)	0.265 (0.347)	-0.485 (0.367)
	p = 0.423	p = 0.098	p = 0.946	p = 0.446	p = 0.187
Elementary Spanish I	-0.228 (0.164)	-0.411 (0.346)	-0.514 (0.365)	-0.450 (0.352)	0.424 (0.339)
	p = 0.165	p = 0.236	p = 0.159	p = 0.202	p = 0.212
College Algebra	0.222 (0.159)	0.101 (0.340)	0.103 (0.315)	0.559 (0.343)	0.133 (0.360)
	p = 0.164	p = 0.766	p = 0.743	p = 0.104	p = 0.713
Undecided	-0.092 (0.122)	-0.182 (0.246)	0.162 (0.252)	-0.336 (0.264)	0.081 (0.253)
	p = 0.452	p = 0.460	p = 0.522	p = 0.203	p = 0.749
Nursing	-0.259^* (0.146)	-0.404 (0.302)	0.093 (0.299)	-0.327 (0.313)	-0.408 (0.307)
	p = 0.077	p = 0.181	p = 0.756	p = 0.296	p = 0.184
Biology	-0.206 (0.168)	-0.382 (0.352)	0.297 (0.333)	-0.252 (0.368)	-0.344 (0.350)
	p = 0.223	p = 0.279	p = 0.374	p = 0.495	p = 0.326
Health Science	-0.090 (0.218)	0.132 (0.444)	0.395 (0.443)	-0.846^* (0.488)	-0.089 (0.449)
	p = 0.678	p = 0.766	p = 0.373	p = 0.084	p = 0.843
Psychology	0.120 (0.212)	0.725^* (0.436)	0.463 (0.430)	-0.083 (0.423)	-0.546 (0.493)
	p = 0.571	p = 0.097	p = 0.282	p = 0.844	p = 0.269
Dental Hygiene	-0.118 (0.211)	-0.166 (0.455)	0.222 (0.439)	-0.653 (0.453)	-0.041 (0.421)
	p = 0.579	p = 0.716	p = 0.614	p = 0.150	p = 0.922
Computer Science	-0.282 (0.275)	-0.051 (0.519)	-0.087 (0.619)	-0.658 (0.581)	-0.449 (0.582)
	p = 0.305	p = 0.923	p = 0.889	p = 0.259	p = 0.441
General Business	0.406 (0.448)	-0.066 (0.829)	0.975 (0.875)	0.648 (0.906)	0.314 (1.158)
	p = 0.365	p = 0.937	p = 0.265	p = 0.475	p = 0.787
Pharmacy	-0.643^*** (0.197)	-0.681^* (0.399)	-0.092 (0.426)	-1.184^*** (0.381)	-0.556 (0.440)
	p = 0.002	p = 0.088	p = 0.829	p = 0.002	p = 0.207
Radiographic Science	-0.303 (0.281)	0.379 (0.539)	-0.372 (0.563)	-1.011 (0.785)	-0.161 (0.559)
	p = 0.282	p = 0.482	p = 0.509	p = 0.198	p = 0.773
Elementary Education	-0.222 (0.319)	-0.781 (0.658)	-0.014 (0.672)	-0.655 (0.756)	0.378 (0.579)
	p = 0.486	p = 0.236	p = 0.984	p = 0.387	p = 0.514
Secondary Education	-0.130 (0.459)	-0.193 (1.104)	0.128 (1.644)	-0.440 (0.768)	-0.256 (0.877)
	p = 0.778	p = 0.861	p = 0.939	p = 0.567	p = 0.771
Mechanical Engineering	-0.096 (0.270)	0.316 (0.567)	-0.488 (0.564)	-0.083 (0.521)	-0.556 (0.616)
	p = 0.723	p = 0.578	p = 0.388	p = 0.874	p = 0.367
Communication	0.265 (0.400)	1.639^* (0.981)	0.076 (0.776)	0.163 (0.865)	-0.301 (0.814)
	p = 0.508	p = 0.095	p = 0.922	p = 0.851	p = 0.713
Physical Education	-0.069 (0.267)	-0.021 (0.508)	0.355 (0.569)	-0.491 (0.554)	0.097 (0.674)
	p = 0.798	p = 0.967	p = 0.534	p = 0.376	p = 0.886
Nuclear Engineering	-0.117 (0.363)	0.050 (0.816)	2.462^** (1.131)	-0.984 (0.680)	-2.001^** (0.986)
	p = 0.748	p = 0.952	p = 0.030	p = 0.148	p = 0.043
Physical Therapist Assistant	12.076 (196.968)	13.950 (535.411)
	p = 0.952	p = 0.980
Management	0.088 (0.378)	-0.042 (0.861)	0.795 (0.728)	-1.129 (0.891)	0.376 (0.748)
	p = 0.817	p = 0.961	p = 0.275	p = 0.206	p = 0.615
Accounting	0.474 (0.321)	-0.137 (0.732)	0.816 (0.652)	0.568 (0.736)	1.067 (0.691)
	p = 0.141	p = 0.852	p = 0.212	p = 0.441	p = 0.123
Social Work	0.447 (0.391)	-0.027 (0.780)	1.698^** (0.745)	0.773 (1.052)	-0.050 (0.855)
	p = 0.253	p = 0.973	p = 0.023	p = 0.463	p = 0.953
Fiscal Year 2015	0.121 (0.134)	0.510^* (0.276)	0.131 (0.276)	0.220 (0.293)	-0.535^* (0.292)
	p = 0.365	p = 0.065	p = 0.634	p = 0.453	p = 0.068
Fiscal Year 2016	0.105 (0.133)	0.103 (0.280)	0.260 (0.274)	0.547^* (0.283)	-0.457 (0.285)
	p = 0.429	p = 0.712	p = 0.343	p = 0.054	p = 0.109
Fiscal Year 2017	-0.014 (0.143)	-0.065 (0.296)	0.173 (0.297)	0.198 (0.308)	-0.359 (0.308)
	p = 0.922	p = 0.827	p = 0.561	p = 0.521	p = 0.244
Fiscal Year 2018	0.057 (0.135)	-0.092 (0.283)	-0.103 (0.282)	0.384 (0.290)	-0.068 (0.277)
	p = 0.673	p = 0.745	p = 0.715	p = 0.186	p = 0.806
Constant	-9.811^*** (0.780)	-8.164^*** (1.751)	-7.280^*** (1.861)	-12.017^*** (1.864)	-12.305^*** (1.551)
	p = 0.000	p = 0.00001	p = 0.0001	p = 0.000	p = 0.000

Observations	3,565	924	879	890	872
Log Likelihood	-1,950.809	-485.160	-483.540	-446.019	-454.324
Akaike Inf. Crit.	4,017.617	1,086.320	1,081.080	1,006.038	1,022.649

Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Multicollinearity

Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) scores were used to examine if multicollinearity exists in the model. With scores well below 5, multicollinearity is not a major concern with the models.

VIF - Model Without Act or SAT Score

##                         GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## FEMALE_MODEL        1.401636  1        1.183907
## WHITE_MODEL         2.004628  1        1.415849
## HISPANIC_MODEL      1.770763  1        1.330700
## AGE                 1.204409  1        1.097456
## FIRST_GEN_MODEL     1.157071  1        1.075672
## PELL_MODEL          1.512357  1        1.229779
## HS_GPA              1.455729  1        1.206536
## ATHLETE_MODEL       3.224696  1        1.795744
## LIVE_CAMPUS_MODEL   1.461202  1        1.208802
## ONLINE_ALL_MODEL    1.049192  1        1.024301
## ONLINE_SOME_MODEL   1.103238  1        1.050351
## REMEDIAL_SOME_MODEL 1.703143  1        1.305045
## PRIOR_DUAL_MODEL    1.330449  1        1.153451
## STATE_MODEL         1.616873  1        1.271563
## GRANT_AMT           2.306114  1        1.518589
## LOAN_AMT            1.225937  1        1.107220
## ENGL_1101           1.334804  1        1.155337
## PSYC_1101           1.159442  1        1.076774
## ACAD_1104           1.427725  1        1.194874
## ART_1100            1.183642  1        1.087953
## BIOL_1101           1.300299  1        1.140306
## ENGL_1102           1.320695  1        1.149215
## SOC_1101            1.104968  1        1.051175
## COMM_1101           1.102182  1        1.049848
## MATH_1108           1.231209  1        1.109599
## CHEM_1111           1.284655  1        1.133426
## FIN_1115            1.058289  1        1.028732
## PEAC_1190           2.997910  1        1.731447
## PHIL_1101           1.034456  1        1.017082
## ANTH_2237           1.075160  1        1.036899
## SPAN_1101           1.038278  1        1.018959
## MATH_1143           1.102432  1        1.049968
## MAJOR_UNDC          1.406449  1        1.185938
## MAJOR_HPNU          1.459284  1        1.208008
## MAJOR_BLBL          1.231065  1        1.109534
## MAJOR_HSHS          1.143137  1        1.069176
## MAJOR_PGPS          1.204946  1        1.097700
## MAJOR_HPDH          1.196266  1        1.093739
## MAJOR_EGCS          1.169982  1        1.081657
## MAJOR_BUGB          1.032702  1        1.016220
## MAJOR_PHPD          1.172087  1        1.082630
## MAJOR_HPRS          1.093300  1        1.045610
## MAJOR_EDED          1.073967  1        1.036324
## MAJOR_EDSE          1.038434  1        1.019036
## MAJOR_EGME          1.247801  1        1.117050
## MAJOR_CMCO          1.041528  1        1.020553
## MAJOR_EDPE          1.081472  1        1.039938
## MAJOR_EGNE          1.079159  1        1.038826
## MAJOR_TPTA          1.006925  1        1.003457
## MAJOR_BUMG          1.047661  1        1.023553
## MAJOR_BUAC          1.070103  1        1.034458
## MAJOR_SWSW          1.072254  1        1.035497
## FISCAL_YEAR         1.769422  4        1.073937

VIF - Final Model (With ACT of SAT score)

##                         GVIF Df GVIF^(1/(2*Df))
## FEMALE_MODEL        1.319717  1        1.148789
## WHITE_MODEL         2.103738  1        1.450427
## HISPANIC_MODEL      2.101266  1        1.449574
## AGE                 1.134281  1        1.065026
## FIRST_GEN_MODEL     1.132884  1        1.064370
## PELL_MODEL          1.536367  1        1.239503
## HS_GPA              1.638173  1        1.279911
## ACT_SAT_SCORE       2.066158  1        1.437414
## ATHLETE_MODEL       2.930025  1        1.711732
## LIVE_CAMPUS_MODEL   1.441988  1        1.200828
## ONLINE_ALL_MODEL    1.054735  1        1.027003
## ONLINE_SOME_MODEL   1.117386  1        1.057065
## REMEDIAL_SOME_MODEL 1.472623  1        1.213517
## PRIOR_DUAL_MODEL    1.301776  1        1.140954
## STATE_MODEL         1.738581  1        1.318553
## GRANT_AMT           2.503824  1        1.582348
## LOAN_AMT            1.211596  1        1.100725
## ENGL_1101           1.409466  1        1.187209
## PSYC_1101           1.121967  1        1.059230
## ACAD_1104           1.421416  1        1.192231
## ART_1100            1.125532  1        1.060911
## BIOL_1101           1.264825  1        1.124645
## ENGL_1102           1.353380  1        1.163349
## SOC_1101            1.115077  1        1.055972
## COMM_1101           1.112123  1        1.054572
## MATH_1108           1.320921  1        1.149313
## CHEM_1111           1.348680  1        1.161327
## FIN_1115            1.058595  1        1.028880
## PEAC_1190           2.713198  1        1.647179
## PHIL_1101           1.034936  1        1.017318
## ANTH_2237           1.084540  1        1.041413
## SPAN_1101           1.045388  1        1.022442
## MATH_1143           1.108983  1        1.053083
## MAJOR_UNDC          1.462049  1        1.209152
## MAJOR_HPNU          1.490421  1        1.220828
## MAJOR_BLBL          1.271012  1        1.127392
## MAJOR_HSHS          1.167929  1        1.080708
## MAJOR_PGPS          1.203914  1        1.097230
## MAJOR_HPDH          1.231766  1        1.109850
## MAJOR_EGCS          1.123035  1        1.059734
## MAJOR_BUGB          1.040983  1        1.020286
## MAJOR_PHPD          1.205150  1        1.097793
## MAJOR_HPRS          1.118753  1        1.057711
## MAJOR_EDED          1.080261  1        1.039356
## MAJOR_EDSE          1.046975  1        1.023218
## MAJOR_EGME          1.138393  1        1.066955
## MAJOR_CMCO          1.056424  1        1.027825
## MAJOR_EDPE          1.100801  1        1.049190
## MAJOR_EGNE          1.093722  1        1.045812
## MAJOR_TPTA          1.000002  1        1.000001
## MAJOR_BUMG          1.054464  1        1.026871
## MAJOR_BUAC          1.076679  1        1.037632
## MAJOR_SWSW          1.085452  1        1.041850
## FISCAL_YEAR         1.644417  4        1.064147

Student Demographics and Graduation Rates Within Six Years

Thomas Sharpe, Senior Data Scientist - Idaho State University

April 2024

Objective and Scope

Key Findings

Variables Considered

Demographics

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Gen

Pell Eligibility

High School Activity

High School GPA

Graduation

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

ACT or SAT

Graduation

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

Prior Dual Credit

Graduation

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

In-State or Out-of-State

Graduation

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

Financial Indicators

Grant Aid Received

Graduation

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

Loans Received

Graduation

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

ISU Initial Activity

Athlete

Graduation

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

Living Arrangement

Graduation

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

Online Enrollment

Graduation

Sex

Race/Ethnicity

Age

First Generation

Pell Eligibility

Participation in Remedial Education

Graduation