First Fall GPA and Fall-to-Fall Retention

Objective and Scope

Examine the correlation between how a student performs in their first fall semester and fall-to-fall retention.

Analysis included fall semester first-time post-secondary full-time bachelors degree-seeking students over the last five years and whether they returned to ISU the subsequent fall or not. Two related measures were considered for first-fall student performance:

• Term GPA:
  • Quality Points / GPA Hours if greater than zero
  • Essentially excluded those who completely withdrew from the analysis, which adds a certain perspective to the analysis
• “Pseudo” GPA
  • Quality Points / Hours Attempted.
  • Essentially treated a withdrawal (W) as an F (0 GPA) and therefore keeps those students and enrollments in the results.

A multivariate logistic regression was performed to better isolate if, after controlling for a closer to complete picture of the student, the correlation between first fall GPA and retention persists. Control variables included various characteristics about the student prior to their arrival at ISU (e.g. high school activity), financial variables (e.g. aid received), initial ISU activity (e.g. chosen course taking behavior) and various student demographics.

As previous research had identified High School GPA as one of the better predictors of retention for entering students, analysis focused on if initial college performance (first fall GPA) evolved the probability of retention for students.

Results

Key Findings

First-Fall performance was correlated with the probability of retention. Previous research had identified High School GPA as one of the better predictors of retention for entering students. The probability of entering students with low high school GPA of being retained into their subsequent fall is quite low.

However,looking into the future one semester in a way, how a student performed their first semester became the more up-to-date predictor of retention, relative to high school GPA. For example, students with low high school GPA who performed well their first fall semester had a higher probability of being retained than those with a strong high school GPA that performed poorly their first fall semester. This scenario (low high school GPA student performing well their first semester) just doesn’t happen frequently (low proportion).

It may be worth a reminder that these results reflect correlation, not causation. Nevertheless, it is a hopeful finding that students can come from less strong high school performance can still be successful.